The Fast Moving Consumer Goods segment will remain essentially stable in 2016 and begin a slow recovery in 2017.

This is the overall picture painted by IRI, which provides initial estimates of Fast Moving Consumer Goods in 2016 and the forecasts for 2017 (Figure 6). 

Following 2.2% growth in 2015, 2016 will close with a more modest +0.3%, largely due to the climate of low confidence that characterised the first half of the year in particular. The moderately positive forecasts are justified by the cautiously optimistic overall economic outlook.

Figure 6 – % variation in volume sales (values at constant prices)  

Source: IRI.

Forecasts for Total Volume Sales of Fast Moving Consumer Goods. Hypermarkets + Supermarkets + Small Self-Service Stores + Drugstores + Discount Stores. IRI forecasts updated to 29 September 2016

The IRI forecasts for sales in terms of value (Figure 7) are based on two assumptions. Firstly, prices are expected to remain essentially stable, maintaining the current level of deflation. Secondly, the government is not expected to resort to the safeguard clause and will therefore not intervene on indirect taxation. In this scenario, growth in sales by value will be only slightly higher than that of sales by volume.

Figure 7 – % variation in sales by value  
 

Source: IRI.

Forecasts for Total Value Sales of Fast Moving Consumer Goods. Hypermarkets + Supermarkets + Small Self-Service Stores + Drugstores + Discount Stores. IRI forecasts updated to 29 September 2016